Overview

The impacts of COVID-19 on the economy of the United States: In-depth considerations of health effects, avoidance behavior, resilience, and international trade linkages

The future economic effects of COVID-19 are highly uncertain. Early predictions showed COVID-19 may plunge the U.S. into an economic recession. However, current conditions make it difficult to predict the length and severity of the pandemic and identify any long-term economic repercussions.

This project will study potential economic impacts of the COVID-19 virus in six different scenarios, ranging from a relatively minor event to a national disaster. Team members will leverage their expertise and experience in modeling the economic consequences of past disasters and health events under a variety of factors, including: timing of the threat, vaccine availability and distribution, healthcare costs, avoidance behaviors and resilience tactics. Analyzing COVID-19 impacts on economies of the U.S., China and the rest of the world will also be explored.

This project is a follow up and expansion of the project Economic Modeling the impacts of COVID-19 completed in summer 2020.

Solution 

The project primarily focuses on the impacts to the U.S. economy. However, the team will also study broader models and analysis through the GTAP world model and international trade linkages. This approach enables the team to estimate macroeconomic impacts in major countries/regions, such as China, Brazil and Europe to predict how COVID-19 will affect the economies of the U.S. and its trade partners.

Impact 

This study will provide DHS with estimates of aggregate and sectoral economic impacts of the
COVID-19 pandemic. This includes models for a variety of conditions, such as disease severity, government policy, behavioral responses and resilience. It also provides DHS with another economic modeling capability through its Centers of Excellence (COEs) to analyze this and future biological threats.

Research Leadership Team 

Principal Investigator: Adam Rose, University of Southern California (USC)
Co-PI: Richard John, USC
Co-PI: Terrie Walmsley, ImpactECON LLC.
Co-PI: Dan Wei, USC
Co-PI: Jakrub Hlavka, USC