The Hidden World of Marine Transportation Disruptions
The Marine Transportation System (MTS) is an invisible yet indispensable backbone of global trade. Responsible for transporting 80-90% of goods worldwide, disruptions to this system can cause far-reaching consequences, from delays in essential medical supplies to the inability to replace broken household appliances. When multiple disruptions occur simultaneously or in close succession, their compounded impact can overwhelm the system, leading to longer-lasting and more severe disruptions than typically anticipated.
This reality is at the project: Modeling the Impact of Complex, Multi-Vector Disruptions to the Marine Transportation System (MCAT), an initiative aimed at understanding the cascading consequences of overlapping disruptions to this vital sector. Led by a team of experts from Rutgers University, the University of Southern California, Ohio State University, and the private sector, the project is developing tools and strategies to help mitigate the effects of complex, multi-faceted crises.
Historically, research and contingency planning around the MTS have focused on single-event disruptions—such as oil spills, labor strikes, or cyber-attacks. However, these approaches often fall short when multiple disruptions occur simultaneously. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and low water levels in the Panama Canal have shown how a combination of crises can magnify the effects on global supply chains, creating disruptions that are far more damaging than their individual components.
Dr. Fred Roberts, a lead investigator on the project, explains the importance of understanding these compound crises: “Marine transportation is very accustomed to disruptions like storms or accidents, but when more than one disruption happens at the same time, the results can be much worse than we ever imagined.” The project’s goal is to explore these complex interactions, helping policymakers and business leaders better prepare for, manage, and recover from these cascading events.
The MCAT Tool: A Game-Changer for Risk Management
At the core of this initiative is the MCAT tool, which aims to improve risk management for the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and other stakeholders in the maritime sector. The tool simulates a variety of disruption scenarios, including complex, multi-vector events that are seldom explored in traditional models. This includes cascading disruptions like simultaneous labor shortages, cyber-attacks, and physical infrastructure failures.
Dr. Roberts highlights the tool’s significance, saying, “The complexity of the global supply chain has become so vast that disruptions in one part of the world can have unforeseen impacts elsewhere. Our goal is to provide leadership in DHS and the USCG with a tool that helps them understand potential disruptions and identify countermeasures to mitigate these impacts.”
Engagement and Collaboration with Key Stakeholders
One of the standout features of the project is its wide-reaching collaboration with a diverse range of stakeholders, from federal agencies like FEMA and CISA to private sector players such as Maersk and SSA Marine. Through regular consultations and scenario-based exercises, the project has fostered an environment of continuous learning and adaptation.
The project’s engagement with the USCG, in particular, has been notable. By involving Coast Guard personnel in the development of disruption scenarios and countermeasures, the project ensures that the resulting tools are both practical and actionable. In fact, these real-world collaborations have led to some immediate applications of the MCAT tool, with stakeholders already seeking insights for ongoing challenges. As Dr. Roberts notes, “The level of interest from stakeholders has been remarkable. They are constantly reaching out, asking how we can help them better understand and prepare for disruptions. This kind of communication and collaboration is one of the major impacts of this project.”
Insights and Unexpected Discoveries
The complexity of the marine transportation system has proven to be more intricate than even the project’s lead researchers initially anticipated. Dr. Roberts notes that the interconnectedness of global supply chains was an eye-opening discovery: “As we study the system, we’re realizing just how difficult it is to trace the source of disruptions. It’s harder than ever to know where goods are coming from and how an event in one part of the world can ripple through to the other side.”
Moreover, the team’s findings have underscored the importance of considering economic, operational, and human factors in any disruption model. For example, while the economic costs of supply chain disruptions are often discussed, the human and operational impacts—such as the effects on labor, technology, and infrastructure—have been less thoroughly explored. This gap in the literature has been a driving force behind the project’s innovative approach.
Real-World Impact: Turning Knowledge into Action
The practical applications of the MCAT tool are already being seen. Through partnerships with the USCG, FEMA, CISA, and private companies, the project has participated in numerous exercises that simulate disruption scenarios. These exercises have proven to be invaluable, helping participants better understand how different disruptions interact and how best to respond in real-time.
Dr. Roberts emphasizes the importance of these exercises: “It’s not just about developing a tool, but about creating a mindset. We’re getting the right people in the room, talking about scenarios, and learning how to respond together. That’s where the real value lies.”
One such example occurred when the Marine Exchange of California contacted the team regarding a truck overturning at the Port of Long Beach, temporarily closing Terminal Island. Dr. Roberts and his team were able to quickly provide insight on how to manage the disruption, demonstrating the tool’s real-world applicability.
As the project moves forward, it will continue to refine the MCAT tool, incorporating lessons learned from ongoing disruptions like the drought in the Mississippi River and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the research team is working to improve the tool’s accuracy by expanding the scope of scenarios and incorporating feedback from even more stakeholders.
With its focus on multi-vector disruptions, the MCAT project stands at the forefront of a new era in risk management for the MTS. As global trade continues to grow more complex and interconnected, tools like MCAT will be critical for understanding and mitigating the cascading effects of crises.
Ultimately, the project’s goal is simple but profound: to ensure that when the next major disruption strikes, the nation’s marine transportation system will be better equipped to handle it, minimizing the impact on the global economy and the lives of individuals across the world.
“The more we understand about the complex nature of these disruptions, the better we can protect our systems and communities,” Roberts said. “That’s what makes this project so crucial—and so exciting.”
