Modeling the impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. agriculture

Modeling the impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. agriculture
Economic analysis
Past Projects



Economic modeling of the impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. agriculture and the broader economy

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reduce the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by $2.5 trillion and inflict employment losses of 19 million full-time equivalent jobs over the next year, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife coordinated study.

While it is certain COVID-19 will have a significant impact, this project takes a closer look at corresponding short- and long-term impacts on the U.S. food and agriculture markets in comparison to other critical sectors.   


To better understand the evolving economic impacts of COVID-19, the project team is working with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. Together, this group will examine the impacts the pandemic has had and is expected to have on major U.S. agricultural commodities and trade activities.

To analyze and evaluate the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the project team will create a model of the U.S. economy using quarterly economic data, with a special emphasis on the major food and agricultural sectors.


The project team will continue to provide estimates on the economic impacts of COVID-19 by updating ongoing policy actions and resulting impacts. These findings will provide policy makers with critical current metrics to reveal how the agricultural sector is faring under current policies and mitigation strategies. The data could also be used to develop new policies or adjust to current tactics to assist specific segments of the economy as needed.

Research Leadership Team

Principal Investigator: James Giesecke, Victoria University
Co-PI: Peter Dixon, Victoria University
Co-PI: Maureen Rimmer, Victoria University
Co-PI: Glyn Wittmer, Victoria University
Co-PI: Gregory Pompelli, Victoria University